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人民币持续大涨 背后的意义在哪里(双语)

2019-01-11 17:30:06来源:网络

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  1月11日,人民币对美元中间价上涨251个基点,报6.7909,创2018年7月26日来新高。

  On January 11, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar rose by 251 basis points to 6.7909, a new high on July 26, 2018.

  截至13点,在岸、离岸人民币兑美元双双升破6.75关口,创2018年7月来新高。

  As of 13:00, onshore and offshore RMB against the US dollar both broke through the 6.75 mark, a new high in July 2018.

  之前还动不动就要破“7”,动不动就唱衰,如今怎么摇身一变,人民币又挺直了腰板。

  Before moving still, it was necessary to break the "7". If it didn't move, it would sing down. Now how it has changed, the RMB has straightened its waist.

  其实,本轮人民币对美元的升值不是这两天的事。

  In fact, the appreciation of the current yuan against the US dollar is not a matter of these two days.

  本轮升值始于2018年11月中旬,截至目前,升值幅度已超2%。

  The current round of appreciation began in mid-November 2018, and so far, the appreciation has exceeded 2%.

  如果从1月7日收盘价6.8499算起,近一周时间内,在岸人民币升值幅度超1000点。

  If the closing price of 6.8499 is calculated from January 7, the appreciation of the onshore RMB will exceed 1000 points in the past week.

  不仅是对美元走强,人民币对一篮子货币总体也呈现升值态势,目前CFETS人民币汇率指数从92.40左右攀升至93.30附近。

  Not only is the US dollar stronger, but the RMB is also showing an appreciation trend for a basket of currencies. At present, the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has climbed from around 92.40 to around 93.30.

  从上一轮刻骨铭心的贬值到如今的高歌猛进,这不到两个月的时间里,人民币到底经历了什么?未来会怎么走?对你我和给你我发工资的老板会有什么影响?往下戳吧!

  From the last round of unforgettable devaluation to today's triumphant triumph, in less than two months, what has the renminbi experienced in the future? How will it go in the future? What impact will it have on you and me and the boss who will pay me? Poke it down!

  1.美联储提前结束加息的预期升温

  1. The Fed expects to raise interest rates ahead of schedule

  美联储的举动,牵动着全世界货币的心。

  The Fed’s move is affecting the hearts of the world’s currencies.

  美联储最新会议纪要显示,加息是在少数委员不愿加息的情况下进行的,他们认为缺乏通胀压力,反对再次加息,且承认未来的政策路径“不那么清晰”。

  The latest minutes of the Fed meeting showed that the interest rate hike was carried out in the absence of a few members to raise interest rates. They believed that there was a lack of inflationary pressure, opposed to raising interest rates again, and admitted that the future policy path was “not so clear”.

  受此影响,美元指数大幅走低,跌幅近1%,逼近95关口。实际上,自2018年11月至去年底,美元指数已贬值近0.5%。美元指数下跌带动了人民币升值。

  Affected by this, the US dollar index fell sharply, falling nearly 1%, approaching the 95 mark. In fact, from November 2018 to the end of last year, the US dollar index has depreciated by nearly 0.5%. The fall in the US dollar index led to the appreciation of the renminbi.

  2.中美利差出现企稳势头

  2. Sino-US spreads have stabilized

  自2018年12月份以来,美债收益率扭转上行势头,中美利差开始自低位回升。中美利差变化,对人民币走势也起到关键作用。

  Since December 2018, the US bond yields have reversed the upward trend, and the Sino-US spread has started to rise from the low level. Changes in the spread between China and the United States also play a key role in the movement of the renminbi.

  由于市场参与者对美国经济及美联储政策预期发生变化,美国国债收益率出现一定幅度下行,10年期美国国债收益率目前已重新回到3%以下,中美利差在低位呈现企稳态势,有助于人民币汇率趋稳。

  Due to changes in market participants' expectations for the US economy and the Fed policy, the yield of US Treasury bonds has declined to a certain extent. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds has now returned to below 3%. The spread between China and the US is at a low level. Helping the RMB exchange rate stabilize.

  3.中美贸易消息面新增利好

  3. Sino-US trade news has added new positives

  中美贸易谈判对人民币走势影响大,这个毋庸置疑。

  There is no doubt that Sino-US trade negotiations have a great impact on the trend of the renminbi.

  1月7日至9日,中美双方在北京举行经贸问题副部级磋商。我国商务部发表声明称:双方积极落实两国元首重要共识,就共同关注的贸易问题和结构性问题进行了广泛、深入、细致的交流,增进了相互理解,为解决彼此关切问题奠定了基础。双方同意继续保持密切联系。

  From January 7 to 9, China and the United States held consultations at the vice-ministerial level on economic and trade issues in Beijing. China's Ministry of Commerce issued a statement saying that the two sides actively implemented the important consensus of the two heads of state and conducted extensive, in-depth and meticulous exchanges on trade issues and structural issues of common concern, which enhanced mutual understanding and laid the foundation for resolving mutual concerns. Both parties agreed to continue to maintain close contact.

  4.监管政策持续发挥效力

  4. Regulatory policies continue to be effective

  虽然近期监管部门没具体动作,但威慑力仍在。

  Although the regulatory authorities have not acted specifically in the near future, deterrence is still there.

  自2018年11月中旬之后,监管部门没有继续出台相关政策,但此前打出的重启逆周期因子、发行离岸央票等一系列“组合拳”,加强了外汇宏观审慎管理,适时开展逆周期调节,对人民币汇率总体稳定发挥了重要作用。

  Since mid-November 2018, the regulatory authorities have not continued to introduce relevant policies, but the series of “combination punches” such as the restart of counter-cyclic factors and the issuance of offshore central bills have strengthened the macro-prudential management of foreign exchange and timely counter-cyclical adjustment. It played an important role in the overall stability of the RMB exchange rate.

本文关键字: 人民币持续大涨

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